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东北证券-医药生物行业:特色原料药板块迎来中长期发展机遇-200610
2020-06-10 19:56:43  崔洁铭
研报摘要

  报告摘要:
  全球老龄化趋势加速,“专利断崖”到来有望间接带动原料药需求增长。全球老龄化趋势加剧,推动终端药品市场需求稳步上升,预计2019年全球药品市场达12047亿美金,同比增长2.9%。此外专利悬崖刺激仿制药市场,Evaluate Pharma预计未来5年约有1590亿美金销售额的专利药到期,原研可替代空间可达330亿美金,这将大大刺激相关仿制药API市场。
  全球API产能转移,“环保+医改”等政策共振推升产业地位。成本及环保压力等因素影响下,欧美逐步转移原料药产能,以中国和印度为代表新兴市场成为主要的原料药生产和出口地区。此外,近几年随着国内环保趋严,原料药供给侧加速出清;另一方面,审评审批政策改革、集采常态化等提升了产品质量要求。订单逐步向头部企业集中,同时下游制剂需求稳步增长,再叠加短期疫情带来的冲击,特色原料药企业迎来发展机遇。
  国内特色原料药企业发展路径各异。基于国内政策环境变化以及产业升级需求,众多特色原料药企谋求转型。探寻特色原料药企业的发展路径,核心要素是要明白:特色原料药企业将来要赚什么类型的钱?是量?还是价?对于国内原料药行业来说,野蛮扩张产能、打价格战的时代已经过去,除了“环保+医改”带来的头部企业量升红利外,未来企业更多的是要考虑赚产品“价”的钱,在此情况下转型无外乎两条路径: (1)产品/市场的结构升级(中间体一原料药; .非规范市场- -规范市场;新品种的研发) (2)产业链的延伸(原料药1制剂一体化;转型CMO/CDMO )。
  重点个股推荐:在当前产业背景及政策环境下,特色原料药龙头企业迎来发展机遇,具备长期成长潜力。建议关注普洛药业、仙琚制药、司太立、富祥股份等。
  风险提示:产品研发不及预期;降价的风险等
  
研报全文

东北证券-医药生物行业:特色原料药板块迎来中长期发展机遇-200610

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