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东北证券-策略专题报告:调整未完,“地摊经济”利好消费-200531
2020-06-01 07:52:53  邓利军
研报摘要

  报告摘要:
  “地摊经济”受关注,利好消费行业。随着各地政策的放开,“地摊经济”成为了经济复苏的新动力,一方面拉动就业人数上升,另一方面带动消费。历史上政策对“地摊经济”相对支撑的阶段主要为2007年、2017年。从宏观指标来看,“地摊经济”政策的放开对于就业有一定支撑作用,但对于社零的提升并不明显。从行业基本面来看,无论是2007年3月后还是2017年9月以后,消费板块都体现出了较为明显的盈利上升,其中食品饮料行业受益明显。
  具体到对相关行业市场走势的影响,食品饮料,尤其是低端消费品受益相对明显。根据大家的复盘,“地摊经济”的相关政策放开之后,消费行业的市场表现会有一定提升,在市场走势较弱的环境下提升更为明显,但整体提升有限。具体到行业层面而言,食品饮料相对休闲服务、商业贸易表象更好,低端消费品如啤酒、调味品的市场表现也会有所提升。
  川普宣布将取消香港特殊贸易地位,此次发言对市场影响有限。29日,川普在白宫记者会上宣布,将下令取消美国对香港的特殊贸易地位,并将对中国、香港官员实施制裁。此次事件预计对市场整体影响有限,主要由于川普发言并未提及具体制裁细节,此前市场预期的取消香港独立关税区地位、切断中资行对国际银行的金融连接等严厉制裁也并未涉及,发言内容基本在市场预期之内。但目前A股盈利偏弱,且创业板估值相对较高,后续若贸易摩擦进一步升级,可能面临一定风险。
  A股中期调整未完。展望后市,大家认为短期来看A股大概率延续震荡,中期调整尚未结束。主要是因:分子端盈利方面,高频数据显示目前国内经济修复平稳,但目前开始呈现需求端恢复缓慢而拖累生产端的迹象;分母端流动性方面,短期进一步宽松和利率水平创新低的概率偏低,微观流动性则在A股纳入富时权重提升等背景下维持平稳流入;分母端风险偏好方面,两会对市场风险偏好的提振效应基本减退,对中美贸易摩擦升级等的担忧对市场风险偏好仍有一定压制。
  内需导向行业仍是配置重点。从两会的政策导向来看,内需对于托底经济和结构转型的重要性得到凸显。从生产端来看,修复性改善基本完成,持续上升有一-定瓶颈,但新基建相关的5G、电新等行业仍然值得关注;从消费端来看,李总理总理出席记者会特别提到“地摊经济”对拉动就业的积极作用,一方面,低端消费品如啤酒、调味品等将直接受到提振,另一方面,就业提升也将推动餐饮旅游、商贸零售、农林牧渔、食品饮料等大消费行业的盈利持续修复。
  风险提示:海外经济衰退风险加剧,国内政策出台低于预期。
  
研报全文

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